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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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